With apologies to Auburn, we’ll pick up the list at the more serious contenders, with a slightly less serious take. Working our way toward the top of the list, you may find some surprises, all the way to the very top. A reminder that this is not an attempt to rank teams according to skill, but to compare the difficulty each team faces in trying to claim one of two bids from its Region. As a clue, it’s hardest for all the teams in competition in the Northwest because of the number of games that even the top seed can lose, and it’s easiest for teams in Regions like the South and Metroeast where there is only one sure-bet among the sixteen. Predictably, the list picks back up in the toughest overall Region in the country.
50. Davidson
The darlings of the NCAA hoops tournament will need an even more compelling run through Atlantic Coast Regionals. While Craig Stewart bears a remarkable resemblance to Stephen Curry, the plans to add a three-point line have failed, further crippling this team’s hopes.
The Best Chance: The Regional Coordinator moves the tournament to Raleigh, but the information isn’t approved by the UPA until last minute. The school’s trustees agree to cover the cost of a chartered jet from Statesboro, and Davidson is the only team able to make a 9am start time.
49. Western Washington
The Northwest Region bears a resemblance to the NBA’s Western Conference in that the distance from the top seed to the ninth place team is small. This ninth-seeded team doesn’t quite have the firepower of Golden State, and has yet to post a win over any of the eight teams ahead of it, and will have to win at least three of those games this weekend.
The Best Chance: The UPA makes an exception for Club Champion Seattle Sockeye players to participate in the rest of the Series in order to best prepare for Vancouver, and the majority of the team decides to play with their only college teammate in Davis.
48. Carleton University
For a team that came into the season ranked second in the Preseason NUMP… Wrong school. In spite of a Sectional Championship in Ithaca, this is still an unknown quantity.
The Best Chance: In a massive confusion over having two schools with the same name, the other Carleton goes unnoticed playing in this spot as Grant Lindsley, Sam Kanner and Co. decide they would rather not deal with Wisconsin this year.
47. Central Florida
The Atlantic Coast Region is the least kind to good teams in the middle of the pack, and UCF is the definition of that experience.
The Best Chance: A new qualifying element is added to Regionals to try to boost Spirit of the Game, and it takes the form of a Cheerleading event on Saturday night. With Kentucky nowhere to be found, the Golden Knights easily win over the judge’s panel and are given the spot of the clearly less-spirited Florida.
46. Wesleyan
Only in New England would this team enter the weekend with a remote opportunity, and wins over Dartmouth and Williams prove they are not too far from contention in New England.
The Best Chance: Like they introduced the forward pass to college football, they are allowed to implement their running game in this tournament, and become the first team to return all fifteen pulls for touchdowns in a Regional Final.
45. Boston College
Most would be surprised to know this team has posted wins over North Texas, UCLA, San Diego State, Maryland, and Harvard, a solid resume for a contender in the nation’s worst Region.
The Best Chance: An epic final game goes deep into the day where the winner must win by two, and as sunset approaches, a desperation pass is sent toward the endzone, where “Gerard Phil-an” Pietrangelo emerges for a 47-45 BC win.
44. Georgia Tech
Read above comments about UCF, but add two head-to-head victories. A tight game with Georgia at Sectionals also boosts their profile, but this team has serious issues with depth, and it will take three quality wins on Sunday to breakthrough.
The Best Chance: When his replacement failing to produce the schedule or the size bid, Mike Nash returns to save Regionals for the rest of the teams, but as a stipulation, sends his beloved alma matter through with one of the Region’s two bids.
43. Massachusetts
There was no result this season that indicated UMass had a Sectional Title in them, a formula they’d be more than happy to use again in Lancaster.
The Best Chance: Rain and snow wipe out every outdoor activity for the rest of the month, attributed by John Kerry to Global Warming. Howard Dean is brought in to broker a settlement on who should represent New England, and after months of campaigning, all teams meet in Denver and decide to send the two programs that have won UPA Championships, putting Brown and UMass in Boulder.
42. (Tie) Michigan State and Indiana
Two of the four teams that have represented the Great Lakes Region in Columbus have a tall task to try to secure another trip to Nationals this season. We had a hard time with the order of these two teams, though Indiana could get the nod after their decisive 5-4 win at Huck of the Irish, when a seventh-inning bases-clearing double put Indiana in control.
The Best Chance: Tom Izzo and Bobby Knight roam the sidelines all weekend, teaching the kids how to use the high-ball screen effectively against Michigan and Illinois.
40. Edinboro
Probably the last of the teams that is a bit of a reach, but they do hold a win over Pennsylvania, and it doesn’t take much more to emerge from the Metroeast.
39. North Carolina State
The Good: A couple of wins against North Carolina, and a favorable history against Florida at the Regionals site in Statesboro.
The Bad: No wins in three tries against North Carolina-Wilmington, and a captain unable to contribute much from the sideline.
38. California-Santa Barbara
The Good: Part of their team has a win over Arizona, and most of their team still is motivated by last year’s loss to Colorado for the Southwest’s only bid.
The Bad: Consecutive duds at Centex and The Stanford Invite and the Sectionals loss to Claremont leaves this team without a quality win in months.
37. Washington
What It Will Take: A second round win against California-Santa Cruz, Semi-Finals against the winner of Stanford/Oregon, and then Finals against British Columbia. The only team on that list they have played is the last, a 15-10 loss in Burlington.
36. California
What it Will Take: A second round win against Las Positas, Semi-Finals against British Columbia, and then Finals against one of UC-Santa Cruz/Stanford/Oregon. Their two losses to Las Positas this season could signal a quick end to that path.
35. Oregon
The second round at Northwest Regionals will see a rematch of the Finals from the last two seasons, and one nearly everyone would have expected to see again heading into this season. That makes an uphill climb even tougher, and Oregon’s conditioning has been suspect all season.
34. Dartmouth
The highest of the five teams of nearly equal capacity in New England, and they have wins over three (Brown, Tufts, and Williams). The problem is they have to go back-to-back in Brunswick and Lancaster, and have shown questionable ability to close out some big games.
33. Stanford
All’s well that ends well, even if it includes the worst regular season in Palo Alto this decade. They have left themselves with the most difficult route to Boulder possible, putting even more pressure on Mark Sherwood to carry his team to Nationals.
32. Tufts
They’ve already lost once to Harvard in Lancaster to go with losses to Brown and Dartmouth. They’ll need a one-loss weekend like the ones they turned in at Trouble In Vegas and Southerns.
31. Whitman
In spite of being seeded eighth, they can clear their own path with a fourth win against Western Washington and then an upset of British Columbia. They already have wins over Cal, Las Positas, Oregon, and Washington this season.
30. Williams
Even in spite of the loss at Sectionals, the 2007 representative of New England can return to Nationals this season even though they will be seeded behind all the other major contenders. Their win at Yale Cup proved that.
29. North Park
A close loss to Illinois opened them up to a rout at the hands of Notre Dame. The trouble is, in double elimination, that exact scenario is likely to play out again.
28. California-Santa Cruz
They got the significantly harder side of the bracket, but will benefit from playing a battered and bloodied winner from the Stanford/Oregon game at the end of Saturday. If they can get to the Finals, two games on Sunday shouldn't be more than Danny Karlinsky can handle.
27. Ohio State
26. Washington University
These two teams aren’t much different than Kansas or Brown ahead of them. Washington U doesn’t have all the history of Kansas to draw from, and Ohio State has two teams that will be competing for the National Quarterfinals in front of them.
25. Kansas
24. Brown
Two programs with plenty of experience trying to escape from Regionals will face similar situations. Each team has a handful of teams that are as good or better in their Region, but Brown gets the nod because New England has no team like Texas.
23. Oklahoma
Sectionals proved they were better than Wash U and Kansas, but it is another step up in class to finish ahead of the teams from Texas.
22. Las Positas
They are the second lowest team from the Region because their path to Boulder is slightly less daunting. In the second round they get Cal, who they have beaten twice this season, before a bye and a shot at British Columbia.
21. Georgia
Best Possible Scenario: North Carolina-Wilmington takes down Florida, and Georgia gets a win over North Carolina. Georgia, if Coach Tiarsmith takes them back to his Chain roots, should be able to control the deep game enough and claim the top spot from the Region.
20. Notre Dame
They are not clearly better than Ohio State, and the 15-1 win over North Park is deceiving, a team they will have to play in the second round. That means there is plenty of work to do before they can start thinking about taking down either Illinois or Michigan.
19. Delaware
18. Maryland
17. Pennsylvania
One of these schools will be sending a team to Boulder, and the berth will likely come by defeating another team on the list in the last game of the weekend. Knowing that, making a run at Pittsburgh is less daunting.
16. British Columbia
The best team from the Northwest barely lands in the top sixteen spots, because there are simply too many opportunities to stumble along the way. A 5-2 record against the rest of the Region’s top 9 isn’t a convincing argument.
15. Harvard
They’ve played most of their games against the best teams from around the country at Trouble In Vegas and Centex, so even though they are not head and shoulders above their competition, they’ll feel like they are.
14. North Carolina-Wilmington
They have enough recent wins against NC State and UNC (and even the CCC win over Florida) to make them believe they can compete in Statesboro.
13. Minnesota
12. Claremont
UC-Santa Barbara should be tougher than Wisconsin-Whitewater, but Arizona isn’t quite as automatic as Carleton. Even being this high, it still doesn’t get them a place in Boulder.
11. Illinois
They let North Park get dangerously close, and haven’t played Ohio State or Notre Dame or Michigan. They do have a strong regular season’s worth of experience, and should be left standing at the end of the weekend.
10. North Texas
The most dangerous scenario for this team includes a close loss to a Texas team they feel they can beat again, because the ability to rebound will be a question mark.
9. North Carolina
All but one Centex Finalist has qualified for Nationals in the last four seasons, and six of the eight went on to play on the season’s final Sunday.
8. Arizona
They say it is hard to beat a team three times in one season, but Arizona has beaten Claremont four times, so we say Arizona has their number.
7. Carleton
The program has claimed a bid at Nationals every year except one since 1989, so no matter how good Minnesota is, Carleton will have too much history on its side.
6. Michigan
They have the best team in the Region and a player capable of taking over any given game this weekend, a dependable combination for a Nationals team.
5. Colorado
The chance to play at home should provide exactly enough motivation for the only program to have qualified every year from the current Regions.
4. Florida
The top-ranked team in the country has no easy path to Nationals. It will take two solid wins to become the first team to claim three straight Atlantic Coast Regional Titles.
3. Texas
North Texas likely picked the wrong weekend for its upset, giving Texas plenty of motivation. Even if UNT proves to be the better team with a second win, this team is significantly better than the options the South has to offer from the Backdoor Bracket.
2. Pittsburgh
We toyed with putting them in the top spot, because a team headed for a top eight seed in Colorado wouldn’t lose twice in New Jersey.
1. Wisconsin
Carleton always poses a threat, but we’re saying this team would qualify even if it had to play in the 2007 Northwest Club Region.
